United States presidential election in Pennsylvania, 2004

← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →

Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush Party Democratic Republican Home state Massachusetts Texas Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney Electoral vote 21 0 Popular vote 2,938,095 2,793,847 Percentage 50.92% 48.42%

County Results Kerry   50-60%   80-90% Bush   40-50%   50-60%   60-70%   70-80%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 21 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Pennsylvania was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 2.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a toss-up, or swing state. Although the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in six subsequent elections since 1992, the margins of victory had become smaller over the past elections. On election day, Kerry won the state with 50.9% of the vote, but won only 13 of the 67 counties in Pennsylvania. Most of these 13 counties have the highest populations in the commonwealth. The biggest key to Kerry's victory was winning the County of Philadelphia with 80% of the vote.

Bush was the first president elected to two terms without carrying the Keystone State either time since Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916. This to date is the most recent election where Pennsylvania would back the losing candidate who did not win the overall electoral vote, and presidency.

Primaries[edit]

Eligibility[edit]

In order to vote in the primary, one must have been:^[1]

1. "A citizen of the United States for at least one month before the next primary, special, municipal, or general election."


2. "A resident of Pennsylvania and the election district in which the individual desires to register and vote for at least 30 days before the next primary, special, municipal, or general election."


3. "At least 18 years of age on or before the day of the next primary, special, municipal, or general election."


4. A registered member of the party holding the primary

Convicted felons could not vote from prison and were not allowed to register to vote for five years after being released from prison.

Registration[edit]

Individuals could register to vote at County Voter Registration offices, through the mail, at a Department of Transportation office, or at various other government agency offices.^[2]

Voters must have been registered 30 days prior to the election in order to be eligible to vote.^[2]

Democratic primary election[edit]

The Democratic primary took place on April 27, 2004. It was open to registered Democrats only.

Results[edit]

Note: Twenty seven delegates remained uncommitted until they reached the floor of the convention. Kerry eventually received all 178 delegates from Pennsylvania.^[4]

Republican primary election[edit]

The Republican primary took place on April 27, 2004. It was open to registered Republicans only. Incumbent President George W. Bush ran unopposed.^[5]

General election campaign[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Elections in Pennsylvania
Federal government U.S. President 1789 1792 1796 1800 1804 1808 1812 1816 1820 1824 1828 1832 1836 1840 1844 1848 1852 1856 1860 1864 1868 1872 1876 1880 1884 1888 1892 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 U.S. Senate Class One 1788 1791 1793 1794 1797 1802 1808 February 1814 1814 1820-21 1826 1831 1832-33 1840 1845 1851 1857 1861 1863 1869 1875 1881 1887 1893 1901 1905 1909 1911 1916 1922 1928 1934 1940 1946 1952 1958 1964 1970 1976 1982 1988 1991 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018 Class Three 1788 1795 1801 December 1801 1806 1812 1818 1824–25 1830 1834 1836 1843 1845 1849 1856 1861 1867 1873 1877 1879 1885 1891 1897 1903 1909 1914 1920 1922 1926 1930 1932 1938 1944 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016 U.S. House of Representatives 1788 1791 1792 1794 1796 1798 1800 1802 1804 1806 1808 1810 1812 1814 1816 1818 1820 1822 1824 1826 1828 1830 1832 1834 1836 1838 1840 1843 1844 1846 1848 1850 1852 1854 1856 1858 1860 1862 1864 1866 1868 1870 1872 1874 1876 1878 1880 1882 1884 1886 1888 1890 1892 1894 1896 1898 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1964 1968 1972 1974 1978 1980 1984 1986 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2010, 12th 2012 2014 2016 2018 2019, 12th 2020
State government Governor 1790 1793 1796 1799 1802 1805 1808 1811 1814 1817 1820 1823 1826 1829 1832 1835 1838 1841 1844 1860 1898 1906 1910 1914 1918 1922 1926 1930 1934 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 Lieutenant Governor 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Attorney General 2000 2004 2008 · 2012 2016 Auditor General 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 State Treasurer 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 State Senate 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 State House Elections 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Elections by year State elections 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016
Philadelphia Mayors 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 Other municipal elections 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
Pittsburgh Mayors 1925 1929 1933 1937 1941 1945 1949 1953 1957 1959 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2007 2009 2013 2017
Lancaster Mayors 2009 2017
Allentown Mayors 2017
Harrisburg Mayors 2017
v t e

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[6]

1. D.C. Political Report: Toss-Up


2. 
   Associated Press: Toss-Up


3. 
   CNN: Kerry


4. 
   Cook Political Report: Toss-Up


5. 
   Newsweek: Leans Kerry


6. 
   New York Times: Leans Kerry


7. 
   Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up


8. 
   Research 2000: Leans Kerry


9. 
   Washington Post: Battleground


10. 
    Washington Times: Battleground


11. 
    Zogby International: Kerry


12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling[edit]

Al Gore won here in 2000 with barely 50% of the vote. In late October 2004, the state was split at 47% on whether or not to approve of Bush. But Kerry won the poll 48% to 46% in the last Mason Dixon poll.^[7] Throughout the election of 2004, Kerry won most of the polls in the upper 40% to lower 50% range. However, Bush polled within the margin of error, usually in the mid 40% range. In the last Real Clear Politics average Kerry was leading with 48% and by almost a 1% margin.^[8]

Fundraising[edit]

Bush raised $5,030,349.^[9] Kerry raised $4,998,861.^[10]

Advertising and visits[edit]

Bush campaigned heavily in the state and dropped by here over 20 times in 2004. But it wasn't enough to swing the undecided voters as Kerry won the state's electors with almost 51% of the vote, slightly higher than Gore.^[11][12]

Analysis[edit]

This Kerry victory can be attributed to the overwhelmingly Democratic cities of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Erie. Although Kerry-held cities which voted for the Senator by narrow margins assisted him in advancing his margin over President Bush, many political analysts underscored the fact that if Philadelphia were excluded, President George W. Bush would have won Pennsylvania by a fairly slim margin, with 2,663,748 versus 2,395,890 for Kerry. Although Pennsylvania is closely divided in most elections, it did not vote Republican in a presidential election from 1992 to 2012.

Philadelphia and Pittsburgh were the biggest contributors to Kerry's victory in Pennsylvania. However, many independents in suburban Philadelphia counties (Bucks, Delaware, Montgomery, and somewhat in Chester) voted for Kerry, which may well have been the deciding factor. Kerry also had narrow margins of victory around cities like Allentown, Scranton, Erie, and the traditionally Democratic Pittsburgh suburbs; he also garnered many votes in certain rural areas such as parts of the Poconos and the Laurel Highlands, and in cities like Reading, Johnstown, Harrisburg, and State College. Bush's margins were extremely large in Central Pennsylvania and the sparsely populated Northern Tier, with traditional GOP cities such as Lancaster, Lebanon, York, Altoona, Huntingdon, and Williamsport strongly throwing their support behind him. This area, along with rural western Maryland, was clearly the most conservative in the Northeast.

As of the 2016 presidential election^[update], this is the last presidential election that the Democratic candidate won any county bordering Allegheny County, namely Washington County, Beaver County and Fayette County. This is also the last election in which Dauphin County, Centre County, and Monroe County voted for the Republican candidate.

Results[edit]

By county[edit]

By congressional district[edit]

Kerry won 10 of 19 congressional districts.^[13]

Electors[edit]

Technically the voters of Pennsylvania cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Pa. is allocated 21 electors because it has 19 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 21 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 21 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 21 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.

1. Lynne Abraham


2. Richard Bloomingdale


3. Blondell Reynolds Brown


4. Robert Casey Jr.


5. Eileen Connelly


6. H. William DeWeese


7. John Dougherty


8. Richard E. Filippi


9. William George


10. Renee Gillinger


11. Jennifer Mann


12. Robert J. Mellow


13. Dan Onorato


14. Juan Ramos


15. Stephen R. Reed


16. T.J. Rooney


17. Jonathan Saidel


18. John F. Street


19. Rosemary Trump


20. Sala Udin


21. Constance H. Williams

References[edit]

See also[edit]